Decision theory

Summary

 * Q: Given our expectations about the world, how should we act?
 * Ideas:
 * Preferences and VNM
 * But: against  starting from utility, for  viewing inconsistency as opportunity
 * Sequential decision-making
 * EU maximization + constructing counterfactuals
 * Causality
 * Superrationality/TDT/Drescher’s morality
 * Exercises:
 * I don’t know. Maybe some conceptual problems?

Logistics

 * <span style="font-size: 15px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Time: rough guess ~ 1.5 hours [Paul]
 * <span style="font-size: 15px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Teacher: ?
 * <span style="font-size: 15px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Relations:
 * <span style="font-size: 15px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Requires Bayes
 * <span style="font-size: 15px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Pairs with something about consequentialism, Allais/inconsistency/Pareto improvements.
 * <span style="font-size: 15px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Pairs with VOI (together with microecon)
 * <span style="font-size: 15px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Sort of pairs with internal behaviorism

<span style="font-size: 15px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Notes

 * <span style="font-size: 15px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">I don’t know if we want to talk about superrationality/TDT. I think high school students probably do find it amusing, and it is a good example of applying careful thinking to something that seemed obvious, but it’s pretty irrelevant. [Paul]