Bayesian statistics

Summary

 * Q: Given my observations so far, how do I make predictions about future observations? How do I reason under uncertainty?
 * Ideas:
 * Bayes’ Theorem
 * Latent parameters, marginalization, and simple generative models
 * (Many examples of modeling + calculating posteriors)
 * Exercises:
 * Tricky problems to be solved with Bayes
 * Practice with generative models

Logistics

 * Time: rough guess ~ 1.5 hour [Paul]
 * Teacher: probably Jacob
 * Relationships:
 * Requires basic probability
 * Prereq for graphical models + causality + inference unit
 * Pairs with qualitatively bayesian reasoning unit
 * <span style="font-size: 15px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Pairs with quantitative bayesian reasoning unit

<span style="font-size: 15px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Outline
<p style="list-style-type: circle; font-size: 15px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-size: 15px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">None yet. ==<span style="font-size: 15px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">Supplementary materials ==

<p style="list-style-type: circle; font-size: 15px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;"><span style="font-size: 15px; font-family: Arial; color: rgb(0, 0, 0); font-weight: normal; font-style: normal; font-variant: normal; text-decoration: none; vertical-align: baseline;">None yet.